The Real Economy is Way Worse than What The Consumer Expectations Tell Us
In order to gain insight into the current and future state of an economy, many economists hold that it is helpful to get the view on this from consumers and businesspersons. Randomly selected consumers and businesspersons are asked to provide their views about the current and the future state of the economy.
Thus if the majority of those surveyed express optimism it is regarded as good news for the economy ahead. Conversely, if the majority of surveyed are pessimistic it is taken as a bad omen for future economic activity.
Is it valid to hold that surveys can tell us where the economy is heading? Moreover, why should we regard an opinion supported by a large percentage of people as any more credible than the view of a particular individual?
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